Decision under certainty, risk probability and uncertainty

I. Introduction

A. Importance of decision-making in operation research and supply chain

B. Fundamentals of decision-making under certainty, risk probability, and uncertainty

II. Decision under Certainty

A. Definition and characteristics of decision under certainty

B. Hurwicz criteria for decision-making under certainty

1. Explanation of Hurwicz criteria

2. Step-by-step walkthrough of applying Hurwicz criteria

3. Real-world examples of decision-making under certainty using Hurwicz criteria

4. Advantages and disadvantages of Hurwicz criteria

III. Decision under Risk Probability

A. Definition and characteristics of decision under risk probability

B. Introduction to AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)

1. Explanation of AHP and its relevance to decision-making under risk probability

2. Assigning weights in AHP

   a. Step-by-step walkthrough of assigning weights in AHP

   b. Real-world examples of assigning weights in AHP

3. Consistency test in AHP

   a. Explanation of consistency test in AHP

   b. Step-by-step walkthrough of consistency test in AHP

   c. Real-world examples of consistency test in AHP

4. Advantages and disadvantages of AHP in decision-making under risk probability

IV. Decision under Uncertainty

A. Definition and characteristics of decision under uncertainty

B. Techniques for decision-making under uncertainty

1. Sensitivity analysis

   a. Explanation of sensitivity analysis

   b. Step-by-step walkthrough of sensitivity analysis

   c. Real-world examples of sensitivity analysis in decision-making under uncertainty

2. Scenario analysis

   a. Explanation of scenario analysis

   b. Step-by-step walkthrough of scenario analysis

   c. Real-world examples of scenario analysis in decision-making under uncertainty

3. Decision trees

   a. Explanation of decision trees

   b. Step-by-step walkthrough of decision trees

   c. Real-world examples of decision trees in decision-making under uncertainty

C. Advantages and disadvantages of decision-making under uncertainty techniques

V. Conclusion

A. Recap of the importance and fundamentals of decision-making under certainty, risk probability, and uncertainty

B. Summary of key concepts and principles discussed in the outline

C. Final thoughts on the relevance of decision-making in operation research and supply chain.

Summary

Decision-making is an essential aspect of operation research and supply chain management. It involves making choices under different conditions such as certainty, risk probability, and uncertainty. In decision-making under certainty, the outcome is known with certainty, and the Hurwicz criteria can be used to make decisions. Decision-making under risk probability involves assessing the probabilities of different outcomes and using techniques like the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to make decisions. Decision-making under uncertainty is more challenging as the outcomes are unknown, and techniques like sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and decision trees can be used to analyze different possibilities. Understanding these decision-making techniques is crucial for effective decision-making in operation research and supply chain management.

Analogy

Making decisions under different conditions is like navigating through different weather conditions. In decision-making under certainty, it's like driving on a sunny day where you can see the road clearly and make decisions confidently. In decision-making under risk probability, it's like driving on a cloudy day where you need to consider the probability of rain and make decisions accordingly. In decision-making under uncertainty, it's like driving in a foggy or stormy weather where the visibility is low, and you need to use different techniques to navigate and make decisions.